Visible minorities in the Hamilton region will double by 2031 to make up 25 per cent of the population or one in every four residents, according to projections by Statistics Canada.

The dramatic shift from representing 12.3 per cent of the population in 2006 to 25 per cent would likely result from migrants coming to Hamilton from other Canadian cities as well as visible minorities, particularly South Asians, having larger families.

Immigration will have a smaller impact.

The percentage of all foreign-born residents, not just visible minorities, in 2031 is expected to increase to 27 per cent from 24 per cent in 2006.

Zafar Siddiqui, a Pakistani immigrant, and his three Hamilton grandchildren represent the growing South Asian population of Hamilton. At 63, the retired Pakistani government worker came to Canada almost four years ago to be with his children and grandchildren.

"It's a good country. You have the opportunity to do well," he said.

Nasir Sarwar came to Canada eight years ago. Political instability and suspension of civil liberties in Pakistan drove him to Canada.

"We thought this was not the way to raise the children," he said.

Canada's promotion of innovation and self-respect give his five children, two of them born in Canada, a better life, he said.

Sarwar, a former marketing manager for Monsanto in Pakistan, chose Hamilton because the cost of living and rent are cheaper than in Toronto.

The South Asian community, which includes people from India and Pakistan, is Hamilton's largest visible minority group, numbering 21,000. It is expected to more than double to 56,000 by 2031.

South Asians have the highest fertility rate of any visible minority, says Andre Lebel, one of the Statistics Canada authors of Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031.

The report includes Burlington and Grimsby in the Hamilton statistics as part of the larger census metropolitan area (CMA).

The average Canadian woman had 1.7 children according to the 2001 census. The average South Asian had over 2.1, Lebel said.

"This is a trend we see continuing."

However the gap is closing -- in 2006, the average South Asian woman had 1.8 children while the average Canadian had 1.6.

Lebel said some of the visible minority growth in Hamilton is expected to come from the migration of people from Toronto to Hamilton.

In the Hamilton CMA, blacks are the second largest visible minority, and are expected to more than double in number to 43,000 from 17,000 by 2031.

The statistics for just Hamilton -- excluding Burlington and Grimsby -- show the black population at 20.5 per cent of all visible minorities, close to South Asians at 21.8 per cent. Chinese is the third largest, making up 13.7 per cent.

The city's top non-official mother tongue remains Italian, but the top recent immigrants are from China, followed by Pakistan and India.

In 2006, Hamilton's largest foreign-born population was European but is expected to change to Asian by 2031.

Nationally, between 29 and 32 per cent -- about 3 in 10 Canadians -- are expected be a member of a visible minority by 2031. It means 11.4 million to 14.4 million will be visible minorities as Canada's diversity increases significantly, especially in cities such as Toronto.

Those of a non-Christian religion would also more than double, with fewer than two Canadians in three expected to be Christian by 2031.

In 2006, 75 per cent of those listing a religion in the census were Christian.

More than 71 per cent of all visible minorities are expected to be living in Toronto, Vancouver or Montreal by 2031 and nearly one in four people in Toronto -- 24 per cent -- will be South Asian.

By 2031, visible minority groups will comprise 63 per cent of the population of Toronto.

cfragomeni@thespec.com

905-526-3392

Diversity in Canada

* Twelve per cent of residents in Hamilton, Burlington and Grimsby were visible minorities in 2006. That's expected to jump to 25 per cent by 2031. The percentage of foreign-born residents in the Hamilton area was 24 per cent in 2006, compared with 27 per cent expected by 2031.

* One million Canadians were visible minorities in 1981. That jumped to 5.3 million in 2006 and is expected to come in at 14.4 million by 2031. At that time, visible minorities will make up 31 per cent of all Canadians.

* By 2031, most visible minorities -- 71 per cent -- are projected to live in Toronto, Vancouver or Montreal. Sixty-three per cent of Toronto's population will be non-white by 2031.

What is a visible minority?

Statistics Canada takes its definition of a visible minority from the federal Employment Equity Act, which is "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour."

Source: The Canadian Press, Statistics Canada